Does the Yield Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? A Multicountry Analysis
نویسنده
چکیده
Despite their importance, forecasts of real economic activity can be unreliable. Forecasts based on macroeconomic models are often hindered by the lack of timely and accurate data and the complexity of the forecasting model. These difficulties have led to a growing interest in using financial variables to supplement traditional model-based forecasts of real economic activity. The advantages of forecasts based on financial variables are that such forecasts are simple to implement, and the data are readily available and less prone to measurement error.
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